Outcomes Matter: Estimating Pre-Transplant Survival Rates of Kidney-Transplant Patients Using Simulation-Based Propensity Scores
|Title||Outcomes Matter: Estimating Pre-Transplant Survival Rates of Kidney-Transplant Patients Using Simulation-Based Propensity Scores|
|Year of Publication||2011|
|Authors||Yahav, I., and G. Shmueli|
|Series Title||Working Paper RHS 06-137|
|Institution||Smith School of Business, University of Maryland|
The current kidney allocation system in the United States fails to match donors and recipients well. In an effort to improve the allocation system, the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) defined factors that should determine a new allocation policy, and particularly patients’ potential remaining lifetime without a transplant (pre-transplant survival rate). Estimating pre-transplant survival rates is challenging because the data available on candidates and organ receivers is already “contaminated” by the current allocation policy. In particular, the selection of candidates who are offered (and decide to accept) a kidney is not random. We therefore expect differences in mortality-related characteristics of organ recipients and of candidates who have not received transplant. Such differences introduce bias into survival models.